Monthly Archives: August 2013

Technical Notes for CYNICONOMICS Debt Projections

This post describes the methods and inputs that I used in two prior posts: “Previewing the Bad News That’s Likely to Complicate the Debt Ceiling Battle” and “The Chart That Every Taxpayer Deserves to See.”

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The Chart That Every Taxpayer Deserves To See

Update – The CBO’s report is now available.  Using its revised projections, I’ve posted a new version of our chart here. You may be aware that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is due to release its 2013 Long-term Budget Outlook in … Continue reading

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“Anecdote This,” Dr. Furman

I’ll be camping out with my son this week at a scenic spot in the mountains (without Ginger Snap, who doesn’t do outdoor sleeping):

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Technical Notes for ‘Why Stock Prices Are More Stretched than You Think”

(Here’s the article that goes with this appendix.)

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Why Stock Prices Are More Stretched than You Think: A Tale of 3 P/E Multiples

Update: The charts below are based on reported earnings, which I converted to constant 2013 dollars using the CPI. Back in May, I suggested the stock market was showing some signs of froth, although “maybe in the same way that froth … Continue reading

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Why Larry Summers’ Ego Matters

‘Larry Summers for Fed Chair’ proponents are working hard to reverse his generally poor reputation and seem to have gained some ground. They’ve tempted even Fed skeptics like me with reports that Summers doesn’t believe much in quantitative easing. But … Continue reading

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America’s Urban Distress: How Much of the Problem Can We Blame on Liberal Politics?

Much of the distress in America’s cities is linked to regional developments, as shown by the unemployment data in this post. Population loss is a particular factor for the Northeast and Midwest (discussed here), while public pension shortfalls may be … Continue reading

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America’s Urban Distress: Why the Public Pension Problem Is Worse than You Think

In January, the Pew Charitable Trusts published a study showing that 61 U.S. cities have an aggregate pension funding gap of $99 billion and an additional shortfall of $118 billion for retiree health benefits. These figures were widely cited by … Continue reading

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America’s Urban Distress: Which States and Regions Set Up Their Cities to Fail?

In 2011, the four U.S. cities with the highest unemployment rates were: Stockton, California (20.2%) Detroit, Michigan (20.0%) Flint, Michigan (19.0%) San Bernardino, California (17.8%). Today, only one of those cities is still standing. Bankruptcy-free, I mean. Stockton went bust … Continue reading

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