Monthly Archives: September 2013

Breaking Bad News from the Fed’s Z1: Expansions Tend to Explode Near Current Leverage Multiples

In an earlier article, I argued that the S&P 500 (SPY) is more expensive than you might think if you only compared prices to trailing earnings.  I recommended a different approach that suggests today’s valuation is similar to that of … Continue reading

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Detroit’s Bankruptcy Postmortem: The Worms Keep Slithering Out

You may have seen recent revelations that Detroit routinely raided its pension funds to award extra cash – including bonuses dubbed “the 13th check” – to both retirees and active employees. These payments were far in excess of the city’s … Continue reading

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One Pre-FOMC Link That Seems To Explain Everything

I was glad to hear Stanley Druckenmiller dismiss the relevance of Fed transparency in a CNBC interview last week. As I wrote in my last post, the hullabaloo over the Fed’s communications doesn’t rank high on my list of concerns. … Continue reading

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Two Post-FOMC Charts That Seem To Explain, Well, Nothing

Or maybe they sum up the last five months of Fedspeak? I couldn’t decide which.

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Cheeburger Cheeburger (No Coke. Pepsi.): Rick Santelli presents CYNICONOMICS debt projections

Earlier this week, we followed up the CBO’s publication of its 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook with a chart that we believe should have been included. But what would Rick Santelli say? Only Rick would think to mix our debt projections … Continue reading

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Technical Notes for ‘63 High Government Debt Episodes’

This is an appendix for my earlier post, “63 High Government Debt Episodes and What They Tell Us about Our Options Today.”   It contains a summary of credit events that occurred during the debt battles listed in the main article.  … Continue reading

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63 High Government Debt Episodes and What They Tell Us about Our Options Today

Do you wonder what to make of America’s soaring government debt and what it means for the future? Or, if you already have it figured out, are you interested in research that might challenge your position? Either way, you might … Continue reading

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The Surest Way to Spot Trouble: When Even the CBO Says There’s a Problem

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook this morning, and its government debt projections are dismal. As shown below, the so-called “baseline scenario” that adorns the report’s cover is pointed upwards for the first time, owing … Continue reading

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In Case You Blinked and Missed It, Ron Paul Seems To Have Gone Mainstream

I mostly wanted to say we haven’t forgotten about the blog – I’ve been doing research for future posts – but in the meantime I’ll share some links on Syria that I saved over the past few weeks.  (H/t Zero … Continue reading

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