Tag Archives: Ben Bernanke
Did Today’s Flow of Funds Report Predict the Fed’s Next Confession?
In return for speaking fees reported to be “at least” $250,000, Ben Bernanke confessed a few of the Fed’s missteps while speaking to guests of the National Bank of Abu Dhabi on Tuesday: “Bernanke says he underestimated impact of subprime … Continue reading
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Tagged Ben Bernanke, flow of funds report, FOMC, household balance sheet, Internet bubble, National Bank of Abu Dhabi, portfolio balance channel, S&P 500 valuation
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Tracking “Bubble Finance” Risks in a Single Chart
In his 712-page tour de force, The Great Deformation, David Stockman dissects America’s descent into the present era of “bubble finance.” He describes the housing bubble’s early stages as follows: The American savings deficit was transparent after the turn of … Continue reading
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Tagged Arthur Burns, Ben Bernanke, bubble finance, David Stockman, full valuation, Greenspan, Greenspan put, Janet Yellen, price-to-earnings, price-to-peak-earnings, SPY, stock valuation indicator, The Great Deformation, William McChesney Martin
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3 Leftovers from Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting
Here are a few moments from Wednesday’s FOMC press conference that stuck in our heads, all from Ben Bernanke’s comments in his last Q&A as Fed chair:
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Tagged Ben Bernanke, financial instability, FOMC governors, FOMC press conference, Janet Yellen
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Your Guide to December’s FOMC Meeting: Breaking Down the Participants
In “Why the Fed Won’t Taper in December,” we pretended to write the first paragraph of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) statement for next week’s meeting. By thinking about the likely mix of upgrades and downgrades to its assessment … Continue reading
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Tagged Ben Bernanke, Bill Dudley, Charles Evans, Charles Plosser, Daniel Tarullo, Dennis Lockhart, Eric Rosengren, Esther George, James Bullard, Janet Yellen, Jeffrey Lacker, Jeremy Stein, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Narayana Kocherlakota, Richard Fisher, Sandra Pianalto, taper, taper pause
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Why the Fed Won’t Taper in December
Post-mortem: After this article appeared on Zero Hedge, reader Rimon commented: September taper was coming as of June meeting and the main reasons it didn’t happen were a) dramatic tightening in financial conditions (front end sell off), b) sharp slowdown in … Continue reading
P/E Multiples, Deleveraging and the Big Experiment: Sizing Up the Next Bear Market
We last wrote about stock valuation in August, when we looked at three types of P/E multiples and argued that stocks were more stretched than you would think if you only relied on the simplest measure. Since then, we’ve had … Continue reading
Yellin’ for Yellen: I Must Have Fallen Asleep and Woken Up in 2006
After reading the coverage of Janet Yellen’s Fed Chair nomination yesterday, it feels as though it’s 2006 all over again. Confidence in our central bankers seems to be approaching all-time highs, little more than five years after it collapsed alongside … Continue reading
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Tagged Alan Greenspan, asset inflation, Ben Bernanke, forward guidance, Friedman's forecasting, Galbraith, Great Moderation, Huffington Post, Janet Yellen, John Kenneth Galbraith, Justin Wolfers, Milton Friedman, Paul Volcker, QE, Ryan Grimm, the majority is always wrong, Yellen nomination, ZIRP
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Breaking Bad News from the Fed’s Z1: Expansions Tend to Explode Near Current Leverage Multiples
In an earlier article, I argued that the S&P 500 (SPY) is more expensive than you might think if you only compared prices to trailing earnings. I recommended a different approach that suggests today’s valuation is similar to that of … Continue reading
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Tagged Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Bernanke put, Bernanke successor, Breaking Bad, CIU, CLY, credit bubble, debt ratio, debt-to-profits, financial report of the United States, flow of funds, Greenspan put, JNK, leverage multiple, LQD, moral hazard, NIPA, nonfinancial corporate debt, Robert Shiller, S&P 500, SPY, Walter White, whatever it takes central banking, Z.1, Z1
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Stock Prices Are Outrunning Corporate Profits: When Has This Happened Before?
In a recent article titled “Step Right Up and Test Your Central Banking Skills against the Scariest Economy of All,” I encouraged readers to: [Apply] your economic and policy beliefs to early 1928 conditions, and then [ask] how your decisions … Continue reading
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Tagged Ben Bernanke, Benjamin Strong, corporate profits, P/E multiples, wealth effects
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