Tag Archives: S&P 500

Why Next Week May Be Pivotal: Introducing the ‘JAJO Effect’

While this month’s stock market performance hasn’t been kind to the so-called January effect, this is hardly big news.  Most analysts had already recognized that other months yielded better returns of late. Take Burton Malkiel, author of A Random Walk … Continue reading

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This “Non-traditional” Valuation Measure Carries 3 Messages about U.S. Stocks

[S]tock prices have risen pretty robustly. But I think that if you look at traditional valuation measures, the kind of things that we monitor, akin to price-equity ratios, you would not see stock prices in territory that suggests bubble-like conditions. … Continue reading

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P/E Multiples, Deleveraging and the Big Experiment: Sizing Up the Next Bear Market

We last wrote about stock valuation in August, when we looked at three types of P/E multiples and argued that stocks were more stretched than you would think if you only relied on the simplest measure. Since then, we’ve had … Continue reading

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Breaking Bad News from the Fed’s Z1: Expansions Tend to Explode Near Current Leverage Multiples

In an earlier article, I argued that the S&P 500 (SPY) is more expensive than you might think if you only compared prices to trailing earnings.  I recommended a different approach that suggests today’s valuation is similar to that of … Continue reading

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