Monthly Archives: January 2014

Fear the Stock Bubble, but Don’t Sweat the Emerging Market Crisis

Posted on January 30, 2014 by ffwiley

We review a few of our recent opinions for context before getting to the main point of this post: Is the U.S. stock market overvalued? Absolutely. In “Bubble or Not, U.S. Stocks Are Priced to Deliver Dismal Long-Term Returns,” we argued … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Arab Spring, Argentina's reserve drain, Asian Financial Crisis, emerging market crisis, global liquidity, QE boost, Thailand's violent protests, Turkey's corruption scandal | Comments Off

Why Next Week May Be Pivotal: Introducing the ‘JAJO Effect’

Posted on January 24, 2014 by ffwiley

While this month’s stock market performance hasn’t been kind to the so-called January effect, this is hardly big news. Most analysts had already recognized that other months yielded better returns of late. Take Burton Malkiel, author of A Random Walk … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged A Random Walk Down Wall Street, arbitrage, Burton Malkiel, IWM, JAJO, JAJO effect, January barometer, January effect, market efficiency, Russell 2000, S&P 500, SPY, Stock Trader's Almanac, Yale Hirsch | 3 Comments

Tracking “Bubble Finance” Risks in a Single Chart

Posted on January 18, 2014 by ffwiley

In his 712-page tour de force, The Great Deformation, David Stockman dissects America’s descent into the present era of “bubble finance.” He describes the housing bubble’s early stages as follows: The American savings deficit was transparent after the turn of … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Arthur Burns, Ben Bernanke, bubble finance, David Stockman, full valuation, Greenspan, Greenspan put, Janet Yellen, price-to-earnings, price-to-peak-earnings, SPY, stock valuation indicator, The Great Deformation, William McChesney Martin | Comments Off

This “Non-traditional” Valuation Measure Carries 3 Messages about U.S. Stocks

Posted on January 4, 2014 by ffwiley

[S]tock prices have risen pretty robustly. But I think that if you look at traditional valuation measures, the kind of things that we monitor, akin to price-equity ratios, you would not see stock prices in territory that suggests bubble-like conditions. … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Greenspan/Bernanke puts, Janet Yellen, non-traditional valuation measures, price-to-earnings, S&P 500, S&P 500 earnings, traditional valuation measures | Comments Off

2013 Most Viewed Posts

Posted on January 1, 2014 by ffwiley

Although CYNICONOMICS isn’t quite a year old, we’ll join the bloggers who report their most viewed posts at the end of the calendar year. We added up our page views here and on two other sites that publish our articles … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged America's urban distress, CBO, Congressional Budget Office, federal government debt, Financial Analysts Journal, Jon Stewart, Kevin Warsh, Niall Ferguson, Paul Krugman, Rick Santelli, Seeking Alpha, William Poole, Zero Hedge | Comments Off