Tag Archives: Robert Shiller
Bulls vs. Bears: Some Profit Margin Stories Are Better Than Others
[M]argins have been rising smartly–faster than Greenspan can ever recall. His only explanation: productivity… Greenspan argues that the U.S. is undergoing a productivity revolution not seen since early this century… In the longer term, he’s betting that as the world … Continue reading
“Pot Calling the Kettle Black” Classic: Fed Researchers Slam Dishonest Economists
An economist recently recommended that I read a paper by three Fed researchers titled: “Why Did So Many People Make So Many Ex Post Bad Decisions? The Causes of the Foreclosure Crisis.” It was presented at a major conference last … Continue reading
P/E Multiples, Deleveraging and the Big Experiment: Sizing Up the Next Bear Market
We last wrote about stock valuation in August, when we looked at three types of P/E multiples and argued that stocks were more stretched than you would think if you only relied on the simplest measure. Since then, we’ve had … Continue reading
Breaking Bad News from the Fed’s Z1: Expansions Tend to Explode Near Current Leverage Multiples
In an earlier article, I argued that the S&P 500 (SPY) is more expensive than you might think if you only compared prices to trailing earnings. I recommended a different approach that suggests today’s valuation is similar to that of … Continue reading
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Tagged Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Bernanke put, Bernanke successor, Breaking Bad, CIU, CLY, credit bubble, debt ratio, debt-to-profits, financial report of the United States, flow of funds, Greenspan put, JNK, leverage multiple, LQD, moral hazard, NIPA, nonfinancial corporate debt, Robert Shiller, S&P 500, SPY, Walter White, whatever it takes central banking, Z.1, Z1
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Why Stock Prices Are More Stretched than You Think: A Tale of 3 P/E Multiples
Update: The charts below are based on reported earnings, which I converted to constant 2013 dollars using the CPI. Back in May, I suggested the stock market was showing some signs of froth, although “maybe in the same way that froth … Continue reading
