Tag Archives: Congressional Budget Office
Preparing for Obama’s 2015 Budget with a Chart and a Toy
The goal that was identified by Simpson-Bowles was to reduce the deficit as a percentage of GDP to below 3%, but what our budget projection shows is that over the course of the next ten years (or in ten years) … Continue reading
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Tagged CBO, CBO budget outlook, Congressional Budget Office, Josh Earnest, national debt, Obama 2015 budget proposal, President Obama, Simpson-Bowles
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Reviving the ‘Real World’ Scenario That’s Disappeared from Government Reports
For 50 years or so the federal government has deliberately and to an increasing extent misstated probable future budget deficits. Democrats and Republicans are guilty. The White House is guilty. And so is Congress. Private firms that deliberately misrepresent their … Continue reading
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Tagged automatic enforcement procedures, budget balance projections, CBO, CBO alternative scenario, CBO annual budget outlook, CBO baseline scenario, Congressional Budget Office, debt service costs, dishonest lawmakers, government debt projections, gross debt, net debt, public finances, William Poole
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Revisiting the Reinhart-Rogoff Kerfuffle, Part 2
This is part two of an article that was published last month in the POLICY Magazine of the Centre for Independent Studies. We updated our reporting on last year’s Reinhart-Rogoff controversy in the first part. In the second part, we explain … Continue reading
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Tagged bad ideas in economics, Belgian debt ratio, bond conversion, budget shortfall, Carmen Reinhart, Centre for Independent Studies, CIS, Congressional Budget Office, credit event, debt cancellation, debt threshold, debt-to-GDP ratio, fiscal challenges, fiscal train wreck, government default, HAP, Ireland's debt ratio, Kenneth Rogoff, Keynesian economists, Paul Krugman, POLICY Magazine, primary surplus, Reinhart and Rogoff controversy, Thomas Herndon
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Why The CBO’s ‘Mr. Smith’ Has More Work To Do
From budget projections released by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) last week: CBO now expects that output will fall slightly short of its potential, on average, even after the economy has largely recovered from the recent economic downturn. Translation: We’ve … Continue reading
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Tagged automatic stabilizers, budget projections, business cycle, CBO, CBO baseline scenario, Congressional Budget Office, Ford House, Great Moderation, Jefferson Smith, potential growth, potential output
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2013 Most Viewed Posts
Although CYNICONOMICS isn’t quite a year old, we’ll join the bloggers who report their most viewed posts at the end of the calendar year. We added up our page views here and on two other sites that publish our articles … Continue reading
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Tagged America's urban distress, CBO, Congressional Budget Office, federal government debt, Financial Analysts Journal, Jon Stewart, Kevin Warsh, Niall Ferguson, Paul Krugman, Rick Santelli, Seeking Alpha, William Poole, Zero Hedge
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M.C. Escher and the Impossibility of the Establishment Economic View
It’s easy to show that public institutions such as the Federal Reserve and Congressional Budget Office (CBO) are routinely blindsided by economic developments. You only need to compare their past predictions to real events to see these organizations’ deficiencies. More … Continue reading
Fonzie or Ponzi? One Theory on the Limits to Government Debt
If you’re part of my generation and watched enough Happy Days back in the day, you know that “the Fonz” had a keen understanding of human nature. And that projecting confidence was a huge part of his alpha male badassness. … Continue reading
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Tagged America's finances, austerity, Balassone-Francese-Pace, Baum-Cecherita-Westphal-Rother, budget deficit, CBO, Cecchetti-Mohanty-Zampolli, Cecherita-Rother, Charles Ponzi, confidence trick, Congressional Budget Office, debt addiction, debt projection, debt stabilization, debt threshold, debt-to-GDP, debt-to-GDP ratio, dependency ratio, depression-like economy, Fonzie, Happy Days, Hyman Minsky, hyperinflation, Keynesian, Keynesian end game, Kumar-Woo, median household income, Ponzi finance, Ponzi point, Ponzi Scheme, primary balance, primary budget balance, real debt stabilization, Reinhart-Rogoff, The Fonz, wealth confiscation
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Why the Debt Ceiling Debate Should Be Different This Time
Same political dysfunction. Same blue team indifference to soaring government debt. Same hypocrisy from those on the red team who helped set debt on its upward trajectory. Same lack of any serious effort to tackle the most important issue – … Continue reading
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Tagged alternative scenario, baseline scenario, BEA, Bureau of Economic Analysis, CBO, CBO statutes, Congressional Budget Office, debt projections, debt threat, Eisenhower, General Ike, Ike, long-term budget outlook, Niall Ferguson
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The Surest Way to Spot Trouble: When Even the CBO Says There’s a Problem
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook this morning, and its government debt projections are dismal. As shown below, the so-called “baseline scenario” that adorns the report’s cover is pointed upwards for the first time, owing … Continue reading
The Chart That Every Taxpayer Deserves To See
Update – The CBO’s report is now available. Using its revised projections, I’ve posted a new version of our chart here. You may be aware that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is due to release its 2013 Long-term Budget Outlook in … Continue reading
