Author Archives: ffwiley
Your Government At ‘Work’
From today’s CBO report: CBO estimates that the ACA will reduce the total number of hours worked, on net, by about 1.5 percent to 2.0 percent during the period from 2017 to 2024, almost entirely because workers will choose to … Continue reading
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Tagged ACA, Bill Clinton, CBO report
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Explaining January’s Volatility in One Chart
In a month of disturbing images from troubled countries in all parts of the developing world, the biggest threat to the global economy may have been lurking in the shadows:
Fear the Stock Bubble, but Don’t Sweat the Emerging Market Crisis
We review a few of our recent opinions for context before getting to the main point of this post: Is the U.S. stock market overvalued? Absolutely. In “Bubble or Not, U.S. Stocks Are Priced to Deliver Dismal Long-Term Returns,” we argued … Continue reading
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Tagged Arab Spring, Argentina's reserve drain, Asian Financial Crisis, emerging market crisis, global liquidity, QE boost, Thailand's violent protests, Turkey's corruption scandal
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Tracking “Bubble Finance” Risks in a Single Chart
In his 712-page tour de force, The Great Deformation, David Stockman dissects America’s descent into the present era of “bubble finance.” He describes the housing bubble’s early stages as follows: The American savings deficit was transparent after the turn of … Continue reading
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Tagged Arthur Burns, Ben Bernanke, bubble finance, David Stockman, full valuation, Greenspan, Greenspan put, Janet Yellen, price-to-earnings, price-to-peak-earnings, SPY, stock valuation indicator, The Great Deformation, William McChesney Martin
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This “Non-traditional” Valuation Measure Carries 3 Messages about U.S. Stocks
[S]tock prices have risen pretty robustly. But I think that if you look at traditional valuation measures, the kind of things that we monitor, akin to price-equity ratios, you would not see stock prices in territory that suggests bubble-like conditions. … Continue reading
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Tagged Greenspan/Bernanke puts, Janet Yellen, non-traditional valuation measures, price-to-earnings, S&P 500, S&P 500 earnings, traditional valuation measures
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2013 Most Viewed Posts
Although CYNICONOMICS isn’t quite a year old, we’ll join the bloggers who report their most viewed posts at the end of the calendar year. We added up our page views here and on two other sites that publish our articles … Continue reading
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Tagged America's urban distress, CBO, Congressional Budget Office, federal government debt, Financial Analysts Journal, Jon Stewart, Kevin Warsh, Niall Ferguson, Paul Krugman, Rick Santelli, Seeking Alpha, William Poole, Zero Hedge
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3 Leftovers from Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting
Here are a few moments from Wednesday’s FOMC press conference that stuck in our heads, all from Ben Bernanke’s comments in his last Q&A as Fed chair:
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Tagged Ben Bernanke, financial instability, FOMC governors, FOMC press conference, Janet Yellen
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“Pot Calling the Kettle Black” Classic: Fed Researchers Slam Dishonest Economists
An economist recently recommended that I read a paper by three Fed researchers titled: “Why Did So Many People Make So Many Ex Post Bad Decisions? The Causes of the Foreclosure Crisis.” It was presented at a major conference last … Continue reading
If You Don’t Trust the Fed, Here’s an Inside View That Confirms Your Worst Suspicions
Earlier this year the notion that the Fed might modestly taper its purchases drove significant upheaval across financial markets. This episode should engender humility on all sides. It should also correct the misimpression that QE is anything other than an … Continue reading
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Tagged CFA Institute, David Hume, Detlev Schlichter, FOMC, Kevin Warsh, Paper Money Collapse, QE, Richard Fisher, Upton Sinclair, William Poole
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