Author Archives: ffwiley
Your Guide to December’s FOMC Meeting: Breaking Down the Participants
In “Why the Fed Won’t Taper in December,” we pretended to write the first paragraph of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) statement for next week’s meeting. By thinking about the likely mix of upgrades and downgrades to its assessment … Continue reading
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Tagged Ben Bernanke, Bill Dudley, Charles Evans, Charles Plosser, Daniel Tarullo, Dennis Lockhart, Eric Rosengren, Esther George, James Bullard, Janet Yellen, Jeffrey Lacker, Jeremy Stein, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Narayana Kocherlakota, Richard Fisher, Sandra Pianalto, taper, taper pause
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Why the Fed Won’t Taper in December
Post-mortem: After this article appeared on Zero Hedge, reader Rimon commented: September taper was coming as of June meeting and the main reasons it didn’t happen were a) dramatic tightening in financial conditions (front end sell off), b) sharp slowdown in … Continue reading
In 4 Short Weeks, the Administration Claims Private Sector Effectiveness
As we noted last month, President Obama sat down for an interview with Chuck Todd on November 7 and said: You know, one of the lessons — learned from this whole process on the website — is that probably the … Continue reading
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Tagged Andrew Welters, Bloomberg, CGI Federal, Chuck Todd, HHS, Jeffrey Zientz, Karen Sebelius, Keith Alexander, Michelle Obama, Monty Pelerin, Newsweek, Obamacare, QSSI, Sunlight Foundation, Toni Townes-Whitley, Tyler Durden, UnitedHealth, Washington Post
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Technical Notes for ‘P/E Multiples, Deleveraging and the Big Experiment’
This is an appendix for our earlier post, “What Can Valuation, Debt and the Fed Tell Us about the Next Bear Market.”
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P/E Multiples, Deleveraging and the Big Experiment: Sizing Up the Next Bear Market
We last wrote about stock valuation in August, when we looked at three types of P/E multiples and argued that stocks were more stretched than you would think if you only relied on the simplest measure. Since then, we’ve had … Continue reading
Divisions on the Left: Jeffrey Sachs Responds to Summers and Krugman
Here’s an excerpt from a provocative article written by Jeffrey Sachs this week: [I]t is very frustrating to read Paul Krugman again today write about our current stagnation with so little reflection on his part that his own preferred stimulus … Continue reading
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Tagged Arnold Kling, Jeffrey Sachs, Larry Summers, malinvestment, Paul Krugman, potential output
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Have Larry Summers and Paul Krugman Just Had Their Dimon/Dudley Moment?
With my kids getting older, I no longer get much chance to play “What’s wrong with this picture?” This is the game you’ll occasionally find on a children’s menu that’s based on a picture with, say, a guy holding an … Continue reading
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Tagged Alan Greenspan, Arnold Kling, Bill Dudley, financial regulation, full employment equilibrium, Jamie Dimon, Joseph Schumpeter, Keynesianism, Knut Wicksell, Larry Summers, Larry Summers speech, natural interest rate, Paul Krugman, Phillips curve, PSST, Tyler Durden, zero lower bound
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Technical Notes for ‘The Post Crisis Data Is In’
This is an appendix for our earlier post, “The Post Crisis Data Is In, and It’s Not Kind to Keynesian Thinking.” The two tables below contain country-by-country data that was used in the main article’s scatter plots:
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The Post-Crisis Data Is In, and It’s Not Kind to Keynesian Thinking
Anders Aslund of the Peterson Institute recently made an interesting argument about Europe’s winners and losers. In a critique of Paul Krugman’s advice to Europe’s political leaders, he compares economic performance of the southern European laggards to the northern countries … Continue reading
