Author Archives: ffwiley

About ffwiley

F.F. Wiley is a veteran of the asset management industry who writes about economics, investments and politics.

The Chart That Every Taxpayer Deserves To See

Posted on August 28, 2013 by ffwiley

Update – The CBO’s report is now available. Using its revised projections, I’ve posted a new version of our chart here. You may be aware that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is due to release its 2013 Long-term Budget Outlook in … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged BEA, Bureau of Economic Analysis, CBO, Congressional Budget Office, debt-to-GDP, long-term budget outlook, Medicare, Social Security, Treasury Department | 2 Comments

“Anecdote This,” Dr. Furman

Posted on August 20, 2013 by ffwiley

I’ll be camping out with my son this week at a scenic spot in the mountains (without Ginger Snap, who doesn’t do outdoor sleeping):

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged ACA, Affordable Care Act, Applebee's, Barack Obama, Brunswick, Buffalo Wild Wings, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Chamber of Commerce, Darden Restaurants, Dean Baker, Dearborn, Denny's, employer mandate, Evan Soltas, Five Guys, Forever 21, Fort Wayne, Hardee's, Helene Jorgensen, Jason Furman, Long Beach, Medina, NBC Nightly News, Obamacare, Obamanomics, Olive Garden, Papa John's, Plano, Regal Entertainment Group, Southern Lehigh, St. Petersburg College, Subway, Walmart, Wegman's, Wendy's, Youngstown State | 1 Comment

Technical Notes for ‘Why Stock Prices Are More Stretched than You Think”

Posted on August 16, 2013 by ffwiley

(Here’s the article that goes with this appendix.)

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off

Why Stock Prices Are More Stretched than You Think: A Tale of 3 P/E Multiples

Posted on August 16, 2013 by ffwiley

Update: The charts below are based on reported earnings, which I converted to constant 2013 dollars using the CPI. Back in May, I suggested the stock market was showing some signs of froth, although “maybe in the same way that froth … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged bull market peaks, consensus earnings, Federal Reserve, Jeremy Stein, market valuation, normalized earnings, P/E multiple, price-to-trend-earnings, Robert Shiller, S&P 500 valuation, Shiller P/E, trend earnings, unconventional policies, wealth effects | 6 Comments

Why Larry Summers’ Ego Matters

Posted on August 12, 2013 by ffwiley

‘Larry Summers for Fed Chair’ proponents are working hard to reverse his generally poor reputation and seem to have gained some ground. They’ve tempted even Fed skeptics like me with reports that Summers doesn’t believe much in quantitative easing. But … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Barack Obama, Brooksley Born, Bull by the Horns, Christine Romer, Citibank, Confidence Men, Duvvuri Subbarao, Fed succession, Larry Summers, Manmohan Singh, Paul Volcker, Raghuram Rajan, Ron Suskind, Sheila Bair, Tim Geithner | Comments Off

America’s Urban Distress: How Much of the Problem Can We Blame on Liberal Politics?

Posted on August 7, 2013 by ffwiley

Much of the distress in America’s cities is linked to regional developments, as shown by the unemployment data in this post. Population loss is a particular factor for the Northeast and Midwest (discussed here), while public pension shortfalls may be … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Bay Area Center for Voting Research, Berkeley, Berkeley California, Brad DeLong, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Detroit, Detroit Michigan, Gary, Gary Indiana, political bias, urban distress | 8 Comments

America’s Urban Distress: Why the Public Pension Problem Is Worse than You Think

Posted on August 5, 2013 by ffwiley

In January, the Pew Charitable Trusts published a study showing that 61 U.S. cities have an aggregate pension funding gap of $99 billion and an additional shortfall of $118 billion for retiree health benefits. These figures were widely cited by … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Boston College Center for Retirement Research, Detroit bankruptcy filing, pension shortfalls, Pew Charitable Trusts, urban distress | 3 Comments

America’s Urban Distress: Which States and Regions Set Up Their Cities to Fail?

Posted on August 3, 2013 by ffwiley

In 2011, the four U.S. cities with the highest unemployment rates were: Stockton, California (20.2%) Detroit, Michigan (20.0%) Flint, Michigan (19.0%) San Bernardino, California (17.8%). Today, only one of those cities is still standing. Bankruptcy-free, I mean. Stockton went bust … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged city bankruptcies, Corn Belt, Detroit, Rust Belt, San Bernardino, Stockton | 4 Comments

For the Next Fed Head, Obama seems to be Choosing between a Yawn and a Hiss

Posted on July 25, 2013 by ffwiley

Update (August 1) – I shortened this article slightly from the original. Based on media reports over the past few weeks, there are two clear front-runners in the competition to be named Ben Bernanke’s successor as Fed chairman. Current Vice … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Barack Obama, Ben Bernanke, Brooksley Born, Charles Ferguson, Harvard University, Janet Yellen, Larry Summers, Raghuram Rajan, Ron Suskind, Sheila Bair, Tim Geithner | 2 Comments

Previewing the Bad News That’s Likely to Complicate the Debt Ceiling Battle

Posted on July 23, 2013 by ffwiley

The gorilla in the room may sleep soundly for the rest of July and August, but expect a foul temper when he wakes up in September. At that time, Congress once again haggles over our debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Jack … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Budget Control Act, CBO, Congressional Budget Office, debt ceiling, Jack Lew, long-term budget outlook, Medicare, Social Security | Comments Off

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